Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
